A possible dominance of right-wing parties in the 2024 municipal elections is nothing new in Brazilian politics. Political scientist Cláudio Couto, professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV, in Portuguese), recalls that pragmatic right-wing parties, the so-called Centrão, usually win around half of the available seats.
However, the far right's advance continues. According to him, the left's failure to regain the ground it lost after the 2016 coup allows this scenario to persist.
Couto recalls that the 2016 municipal elections were strongly influenced by the national scenario, including President Dilma Rousseff's impeachment, Operation Car Wash, and a deep economic crisis. He participated in Brasil de Fato's live coverage of the municipal elections.
"It was a year in which the Workers’ Party lost 60% of its mayors and councilors across the country. Since then, there has been no recovery. In 2020, there will be a micro-recovery—just a little. We need to see how this year goes. But I would say that the left and the Workers’ Party, as the main party in the left-wing scenario, have not yet managed to recover from the fall," he analyzes.
He highlights that there is room for the progressive movement to resurgence. Couto cites the northeastern states as an example, which voted consistently for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) in 2022. Still, this is not reflected in the municipal scenario.
"The left has been victorious in national elections, where it has elected governors. Rio Grande do Norte, for example. But if you look at the city of Natal, there's no left-wing candidate there with a chance of winning an election. Fortaleza is even an exception in this sense," he says.
